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BSOSCBlog.com • View topic - Change Is Rapidly Coming To America & All The Planet

Change Is Rapidly Coming To America & All The Planet

Change Is Rapidly Coming To America & All The Planet

Postby jpf1030 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:41 am

Howdy Ya'll,

Below is an interesting article, "Change Is Coming To America", from one of my blog subscriptions written by a guy going by the name of Memphis. Many people write postings on the site, but this Memphis guy has a better grasp on global economic and societal issues than most all the others. Though I don't 100% agree with all his comments, he is a sharp guy that is worth reading to keep abreast of what is coming.

The below article is long, but I found it worth the read as it encapsulates all current events in a somewhat different perspective from the majority of we preparedness oriented people. Memphis admitted he even had to modify his prep mentality from as little as a year ago when doing this in-depth analysis. Though I'm not convinced at a few of his points, I will probably read the article again because it is good information in which to have a good grasp of in trying to help others understand the why and what of the change coming to America. The when that he proposes may be pretty right on, but it could come even more quickly.

The article does further validate my inner knowing to calmly, but prudently continue going about our self-reliance preparedness efforts. This along with re-reading George Green's book, Becoming, reinforces one of the most important aspects of prepping to me, that being forming more associations with like-minded folks in helping prepare the way for bringing in the new paradigm.

Happy Preparedness Trails,

jpf

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Memphis: "Change Is Coming To America" Part 1 of 3
9/15/2015

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.” ~ Leo Tolstoy, 1897

Change Is Coming To America.

Every American regardless of their situation senses this reality and yet struggles in defining it. Attempting to actually paint a picture of what our nation might look like the years ahead leaves us frustrated and a bit anxious from all the uncertainty.

Compounding the problem we see an abundance of people who seem bent on scaring us about the ugliness to come and yet how many of them take time to define "ugly"? Such sources appear quite smart on the surface but pass by like a thunderstorm that leaves no rain, having no value, and serving only themselves.

In this series I will attempt to define what type of changes we can expect to see and where possible, to what degree.
This is not a topic to be taken lightly and so we will endeavor (as much as humanly possible) to avoid opinion and keep a focus upon history and the cycles that are silently bringing us to this historic point as a nation.

There is a convergence of many cycles taking place that simply must run it's course, a point of extremes at which point the pendulum will finally reverse course.

Extreme discussions (tho rarely manifested) are where I live as it allows discovery in finding the truth, the place of balance, but for purposes of today's discussion I should alert the reader that there will be some extremes playing out in the next 4-5 years.

There are many other points that can be brought out separately from a spiritual and biblical perspective however their value, their importance, varies greatly from person to person creating a dilemma for us; not wishing to venture into places that might offend.

As such there are possibilities that we will carefully avoid today as I wish EVERYONE to see what I am pointing at. So as we take this look out on the horizon ahead, from a position of reason alone, I am convinced that there is immense value to us all.

Thru discovery; by careful study of history and respecting the habits of man (which always repeat); we can thru observation have confidence in many things. If successful here then we will all walk away with a better understanding of the natural forces at work to then serve as an important foundation in the years to come.

AN OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO REFLECT

"An ignorant person is one who doesn't know what you have just found out!" ~ Will Rogers

In January 2013 I ceased all writing on middle eastern affairs and began sharing observations of the world at large as I was beginning to see some troubling signs.

Often in ignorance I then attempted to define the future based on our course and made vague references to many things including a possible depression but always leaving things open ended as I lacked confidence in understanding the world.

What was often quite cloudy to me a few years ago is much less so today. Most of what you will read here will ring true but some of it may challenge your position, your perspective.

That is a good thing as my intent is not to change or convince but to encourage reflection. Regardless of if we agree at the end you will at least have gone into those deep recesses and considered a new possibility even if your perspective, your perception, remains the same.

THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF THIS CHANGE

I have concluded that we can reduce the discussion to just four (4) forces that are (and will be) driving some huge economic and societal shifts over the next several years.

Using my only known way of expression we will, thru observation and example, point to many concerns and try to determine the risks we face as a nation, their connection to one another, (and where history allows) the possible severity of their effects.

As we progress you will likely see these destructive forces (The 4D's) working silently, behind the scenes, and avoiding the light of day when possible. We will not dwell on them beyond this point where we will now simply state who they are, calling them by name:

WITH WHOM DO WE CONTEND?

DEPRAVITY: moral perversion; impairment of virtue and moral principles. Going beyond mere bad behavior — a total lack of morals, values, and even regard for other living things.

The key point is not that depravity exists for this has been true from earliest times. The concern here is that it's increase is a measure of, a marker towards, the fall of a society. Throughout recorded history a stage of moral decline precedes that of economic decline.

DEFLATION: A state of decline, of contraction. The absence of growth and expansion. That part of the business cycle which marks a correction as ALL asset classes are returned to levels that reflect equilibrium. As I will attempt to point out, the manipulations that central banks have employed in recent years are vain attempts to delay this force.

It's effects will now be felt all across the globe more fully than in many centuries past as we must fall (correct) from a much greater height than was necessary fully because of these measures that serve only to delay. As Martin Armstrong has said repeatedly for years: "You'll beg for inflation before this is over!"

DEBT: I have spoken so often to this that it seems redundant to even include it here. The greed of man never ends and the debt across the entire world (even relative to GDP output) is at a level never before seen in the history of the world.

Being careful here to point the finger PROPERLY, all the worlds ills are not to be placed at the feet of central bankers. Government debt has ballooned in recent years and is central to our understanding of what's coming.

We can make a case for debt when it is created for purposes of industry and expansion of business but that is not what we are addressing here as the entire globe has gone way past such healthy employments of debt and into the public sector.

The force of deflation now requires that the debt be dealt with. This will not end well folks and I am not even close to exaggerating here. The US is knee deep in the equation and all this leads us to our final point.

DEFAULT: A straight forward term referring to an event that follows from a debt that cannot be repaid. This term will be a commonly used one across the entire globe in the next few years and those at the top of the food chain will see to it that those at the bottom suffer a disproportionate amount of the pain. Nope, still not exaggerating.

[note: Some smart people are presently making the case that default is not going to be the outcome, that governments will monetize the money supply (increase it even further and thus debase it) in order to keep things propped up perhaps for years.

I obviously do not believe this to be the case EVEN THO it will be employed in various places and in some large measure with Japan as the poster child as they monetize 250% of all gov't debt issuances.

However this is not really a position of mine (opinion) for again we are respecting history in this exercise and historically nations (in the final analysis) always default; first on the obligations to citizens and then externally to other nations.]

note: for review of the relationship between debt and deflation see:

"The Rising USD - Look Out Below"

http://www.dinarrecaps.com/our-blog/mem ... -out-below

OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND FOR US TO HAVE - CONFIDENCE

"People's minds are changed through observation and not through argument." ~ Will Rogers

Opportunities lie in wait all around us, for us all to see clearly what lies ahead. In this blog we will look at the "how, why, and what" by looking back to history and respecting "the times in which we live"; the cycles that are at work.

There are cycles all thruout our world that repeat with great precision and trends that must (MUST) be factored in to our expectations. These cycles control war, civil unrest, the extremes of markets, demographic changes, the rise and fall of empires, temperatures, the list goes on. Within this discussion we have trends unfolding and these are VERY reliable in the macro (global) arena. Think of them as an unseen hand that is working in concert with the cycle.

For instance, is the global trend in commodities downward, a deflationary one? Then why do we jump when oil goes up for a day or two? If we seek confidence to "know when we are right" then we must maintain focus; the "The Trend is Your Friend" is not just a nice sounding platitude, it is a guide.

"It is easier to fool a man than to convince him that he's been fooled." ~ Mark Twain

Intent on following their old (linear) thinking, sometimes with the best of intentions, we will always have people who insist on telling stuff that simply ain't true; missing the great opportunity that is right there in front of them just waiting to be picked up. Looking in the mirror, I must add that if we are open to being wrong and truly in search for the truth? Then there is yet hope.

Let's pause for one example of trends: What should be our reaction if the G20 calls on nations to play nice and keep currency prices stable and stop currency devaluations? Shall we jump and call the end of currency wars? "It's over! We're almost there...!"

What (if anything) does the trend say? Is the business cycle now suddenly to be defeated simply because some politicians have decreed it? We must pause, take this news up into the macro (big picture) level and THEN examine it.

From here, above all the smog and noise, we then see clearly that government has always been the worst of all debtors; defaulting on their obligations (both internally to the citizens and externally in their debts) is the one thing they consistently do well.

Further, is the global deflationary trend to be stopped by the G20 (or any other voice)? Knowing that the forces driving this are debt and deflation globally, should we not conclude then that this TREND towards lower currency valuations will....continue?

Maybe not in the near term (as men continue to intervene, attempting to stop the business cycle) but the trend is our guide here. That's the key.

In order for history to hold true we can be assured that there will be further downward movements in currency and that the massive debt levels will slowly be defaulted on. THIS is the requirement for the remaining dominoes to then fall!

"You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." ~ Ayn Rand

WHERE IS AMERICA IN THE CYCLE?

By looking back into the history of major nation states, their rise to power and their eventual fall, a few smart people have mapped out (separately) the various stages of any nation state's life cycle.

The consensus is that a lifespan of about 250 years from rise to fall can be depended upon with some variance on the number of cycles involved.

All that I have seen are in agreement that America is entering the final stage; the stage of decline. This stage also has the unique trademark of unfolding much more quickly than others. Tho not a prerequisite for America, in the case of Rome it took only 8 short years for them to fall.

Further, by respecting some big cycles that are set to complete together as they come together converging into one narrow window of time, we can conclude that the next 4-5 years (thru 2020.05) America will be reshaped, remolded, redefined. Note here that I did not say "removed" as that point is not yet clearly defined.

Two of these cycles need to be called by name here. The cycle of civil unrest is unfolding over the next few years as is the cycle of war. These characters need mention because they do not often overlap each other and when they do history records a greater likelihood of major societal change.

The last time these cycles met one another was in the late 1700's when the world was met with revolution in both America and France. Due to their importance we will cover both of these cycles separately in part 3 of this letter.

[note: Please do not think lightly of these events, they are very real and deserving of study for those with interest. Armstrong was talking about these two cycles well in advance, alerting his readers to it even before it's kickoff in 2014 with global headlines that followed, falling in line perfectly (in some cases to the very day).]

On the backside of 2020 I can see blue skies reappearing but a new normal in place that invokes humility and a general attitude of "contentment with less". 2020 and beyond will not be marked by American dominance and I mean that in every sense of the word.

Our military might will no longer be feared and revered and our place in the world's economy will be secondary to other nations. Notice I did not single out China here?

The greatest economic growth in the world is decidedly in the east but India is actually poised to explode with growth much more so than China. This explosion will be a big thing and opportunity will likely abound there for decades.

[note: there are several cycles and indicators that tell this story but the greatest of all (the most telling) is demographics. We can be assured that India is set to enter the world in a big way simply because their population is perfectly poised for it in all respects.]

Given the many variables that have yet to take form I would further generalize the future for Americans like this; those entering retirement will face setbacks and change and a retirement that is different than was planned but the youth and young adults who are just setting out in the world will be a generation that sees great opportunity ahead.

[note: I stole that thought from Harry Dent, a well respected trends researcher, because it resonates fully with what I see.]

A TIME TO BE WATCHFUL

With each new turn in the cycle we see more clearly the things that lie still further ahead. This is not an excuse but an important point for us.

To have confidence [speculation or opinion has little value here] regarding the timing and the magnitude of any micro event requires patience for we must allow the complexities of man's interactions (both domestically and globally) to take shape and with each step we will then see the end (the future) more clearly.

An important near term marker that will be part of this "defining" of our nation will be the 2016 election. We'll speak to that later but for now let's expose some of the characters involved and correctly state what they have done, why and how they did it, and where it is now taking us.

If you have been patiently waiting to get into the "meat" of things then this is where we will be doing that having finally finished all introductions and preparations.

Comments may be made at the end of Part 3 Thank You Part 2
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Memphis: "Change Is Coming To America" Part 2 of 3
9/15/2015

Memphis: "Change Is Coming To America" Part 2 of 3

BIG BANKS HAVE PLAYED THEIR ROLE

As we progress thru any cycle there appear certain events that define and serve as a marker as to where we are; what path is to be followed next. Last December we got a big marker that was a "canary in the coal mine" event. If you caught this event and still remember it then you get extra credit.

This is when I knew that I had to write today's blog as it pointed to the certainty of America's path as our Congress (against all prudence) removed the shackles from the big money center banks and handed them all the freedoms from restraint that had been imposed after 2008.

This moment of clarity told me that despite all hopes to the contrary, our leaders (who deserve to have entire chapters devoted here) had chosen the path of "self" (of greed) and that, at the expense of the people, America's economy would in fact be allowed to crash and burn.
~~~
In the days leading up to this vote our leadership rolled up their sleeves alongside Jamie Dimon (J.P. Morgan Chase) and worked the phones, buying votes for PASSAGE!

This legislation (attached to the continuing funding resolution bill) was so blatantly wrong that even some leading democrats opposed the president such as House Minority Speaker Nancy Pelosi who called it a loosening of financial regulations that amount to “a ransom and a blackmail”.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts branded the changes as a “bailout” for big banks at taxpayers’ expense and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer said on the House floor it was “better to pass it than to defeat it.”

Our elected leaders have been punting for years on doing the right thing guys, I get that, but at this moment in history when we, as a nation, were at a critical crossroads? This (in it's totality) spoke volumes and sadly gave me confidence that the worst possible course (that of least resistance) was yet again being chosen.

[note: It was also this event that birthed my blog about the great need for "character" in our Land.]

Briefly we can point to one other event that set our nation on a course to financial ruin. It involved the REPEAL of certain restraints on banking that were imposed under Roosevelt known as Glass-Steagall (The 1933 Banking Act).

This became a yoke around the necks of the big banks (who wanted to be traders) such that our leaders voted the repeal of Glass-Steagall on November12, 1999 setting the course for the 2007 financial crisis.

Martin Armstrong had this to say of that event:

"The bankers have sold this panacea of a new world financial order to Washington and with this vision Glass Steagall was repealed opening the gates to financial hell."

I have catalogued many hundreds of blogs by Armstrong into 25 subsets and the 2nd most populated category is on big banks and is titled "On The Oligarchy" so YES we could say much more here but let's leave it with this prophetic warning:

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.

The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." ~ Thomas Jefferson

THE FINANCIAL MARKETS (all asset classes)

Many are concerned that Fall2015 will be our worst nightmare. I do not see a single financial event happening yet that will bring sudden destruction or turmoil. That said tho, the next several weeks may certainly have some big headlines! There are plenty of opportunities for a large event to occur that would cause some financial panic.

What seems most likely is that beyond 2015.75 will mark a period of sharp declines followed by less sharp rebounds. This is already manifesting in equities (the Dow index) but we must be clear that this will touch all three asset classes, bonds included.

The shift in confidence past Oct01 will be sharply away from gov't until it eventually becomes reflected in the bond market.

I have no solid timeline but follow the trend closely thru Armstrong.

For the near to medium term it is very much so a discussion of stocks and commodities contracting and thus creating the last big push into government securities. Beyond this the cracks will become evident (the bubble in bonds) as sovereign states (those large holders of our debt) begin to either default and/or warn of impending default.

To connect things here it is important to see that growing civil unrest and the coming decline in confidence in government issued debt are connected. Both are a reflection of the peak in big government to be followed by it's decline as capital will shift sharply away from public debt back into equities and eventually commodities.

At the time of this writing Armstrong has just released a very relevant blog that I will insert a portion of here. Although it is just a part of the whole, it illustrates well the realities in the globe as to what is truly driving capital flows:

World’s top 5 miners lose $540 BILLION market worth

Posted on September 7, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36887

"The World’s top 5 miners lost $540 BILLION market value as the Age of Deflation grips all asset classes helping to send cash running into the open arms of government borrowing [bonds]. Market values of the top 5 miners have collapsed between 60% and 88% from the major high in 2011.

After copper, coal has been the big mining commodity and here too we have seen a crash from nearly the $200 a tonne level back in 2008 to now where it is averaging in the low $60 range.

[No commodities get special treatment here] Despite the shouting that the dollar will crash, stock market will crash, and hence, gold will rise, that scenario does not hold up even looking at the Great Depression era. There too, commodities peaked in 1919 and underwent a 13 year bear market bottoming WITH stocks in 1932.

The scenarios painted by so many to sell precious metals are just not true. Commodities and stocks rallied out of the 1932 low TOGETHER.

When a currency rises, that creates the deflation for exports become dirt cheap and local business cannot compete [thus] increasing unemployment. As money rises in purchasing power, all assets must fall.

Indeed, this was [the environment in] 1935 when Roosevelt created even the 30 year mortgage desperately trying to revitalize real estate. The collapse in commodity prices are on schedule..."

ON INTEREST RATES, DEFAULTS, AND BANK FAILURES

The coming rate hike by the FED will help accelerate this trend despite it's being a small change (.25% expected). Have you wondered why there is so my talk about this? So much fear about the days following a rate hike? Many are even predicting the sky to fall!

This is important because despite all that we hear, market driven interest rates are not only a good thing for any economy they are a prerequisite. Without THAT? Price discovery (the question of what are asset values) becomes simply whatever we say it is.

note: for more on the connection between rising interest rates, the external USD debt, and the no win scenario that this poses for the FED see:

Advice for the Fed

Posted on September 14, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37167

One good way to visualize this is that in an economy that is "right side up" (without all the interventions) then prevailing interest rates are REFLECTIVE of the economy such that steady (or even trending higher) denotes a growing, expanding and, HEALTHY economy. Why?

Because it promotes (incentivizes) commerce! The past 7yrs of zero interest rates has been more destructive than most people realize.

note: Today's blog is not about solutions, that is an entirely different discussion for another day but let me insert here that any new system of economy that allows governments to accumulate debt will not be a solution. If allowed it assures that we will revisit the present day problems, it's THAT central to this whole discussion.

To better understand interest rates, what is money, why a gold standard has never worked, why Julius Caesar had the best solution to resolve our debt problem, and more, I would suggest the following as it is one of Armstrong's most insightful blogs ever released:

Money: What Is It? What is Interest? What is the Wealth of a Nation?

Posted on September 7, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/28070

So why all the fear over a good thing? Well, as the world reserve currency our central bank must consider much more than our own domestic needs and externally this rate hike will cause added hardship to what I outlined in my blog of Sept05 titled: "The Rising USD - Look Out Below". This rate hike would be of no concern if it were not for one thing; the USD debt held around the world.

Because our currency is the global reserve and because we have sold so much of it cheaply the world is now stuck and quite anxious to be divorced from this relationship. Very much a driver in the war cycle which comes later.

The world's economic forces, their swings from high to low, are largely unseen and yet nearly any big global event or shift in society can be traced by a straight line directly back to them.

THIS is why we are going to see a detached reserve currency in the near term (the SDR) as it will not be subject to the whims (the domestic needs) of a single nation. It will be phased in over years to foster large movements of money and accumulated as reserve but will in no way be a panacea to the debt issue that is just now beginning to manifest. Slightly simplified, it is the long term solution to avoid a repeat.

Make no mistake, there is to be a rebalancing of the worlds ledger and the debt will be reduced back to normalcy; the undoing, if you will, of all these years of man's greed thru manipulation of the business cycle and none of this event will take place because it was wanted or was planned. (again, no conspiracy at work here! there is no all powerful force steering the ship.)

I hate to be technical all the time but it needs to be made clear that the present debt problem is called "misallocation of capital" and this simply means that the world's money supply has risen sharply in the form of debt and has not been put to productive use into industry and business growth.*

It has instead landed on the balance sheets of governments who know NOTHING about the productive use of capital. THIS is the debt that we will see simply vanish...poof. A massive cancellation of debt thru default.

* [note: A business will pay 10% interest all day long if assured it can invest and grow producing even a 12% gain. This basic math eludes government which knows nothing of economy but only how to take, to consume. It is a discussion of thrift.]

As these debts are defaulted on the losses will land largely within our shores as the issuer of the debt** and certain banks will not be able to survive it as this paper has been sold into many levels of derivative; a world wherein risk is not always a known element.

We are told that the big banks (especially in America) are now well capitalized, flush with money. This will be proven untrue and the capital reserves will prove to be but a drop in a very large pool.

I only see one segment of banks that are truly well capitalized and they reside in the Far East. Anticipating questions here, I do place some level of confidence in small community banking and localized regional banks. Just an opinion.

As crazy as it sounds (post 2008 meltdown) there is still a large element of debt in the world that is not settled thru one clearing house (market maker) thus allowing risk to be properly accessed, and this weakness, this exposure to undefined, unquantified risk, will be both exposed and undone as the business cycle is finally allowed to have it's day. [And yes, the floodgates to this were opened wide last December by our elected leaders.]

**[note: this shift in bonds is already has been underway for a few years now; heavily weighted into short term treasuries reflecting the coming shift in confidence. China was often found feeding at the trough during QE as they exchanged 30yr paper for short term.

If you have read "The Big Short" then you will readily accept that there are certainly people in the world of finance who see this shift (misallocation of capital) and are preparing. Not everyone in finance will have a life raft but more on that later.]

He gave a talk in which he argued that the way they measured risk was completely idiotic...

“By and large the wealthiest of the wealthy and their representatives have accepted that most managers are average, and the better ones are able to achieve average returns while exhibiting below-average volatility.

By this logic a dollar selling for fifty cents one day, sixty cents the next day, and forty cents the next somehow becomes worth less than a dollar selling for fifty cents all three days. I would argue that the ability to buy at forty cents presents opportunity, not risk, and that the dollar is still worth a dollar.”

He was greeted by silence and ate lunch alone...

Excerpt From: Lewis, Michael. “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.”

SILENT FORCES THAT ARE AT WORK

In a broader sense, beyond 2015.75 and before we close the book on 2016 it will become evident to everyone watching that nothing is working; that the central bankers are not in control as many had hoped. I have pointed out often that central planners are not steering the ship but are simply reacting as the waves buffet it (picture a small sail being raised and lowered with little effect].

Their tools for manipulating markets are finite and have been nearly exhausted. The fact that they even attempt at going back into their tool box is beginning to smell of desperation.

While we are on banking, we can expect bank failures to become mainstream news by early 2018 (and sooner in Europe); this will CERTAINLY include many of the big banks. As their reckless bets (misallocation of capital) begin to bite them they will one by one become openly insolvent, unable to meet some huge margin call, but this time will be very different.

Government will turn it's back, it will have no choice. Why? Because you and I are watching this time. Any politicians greatest fear is what? Losing his/her position of power and money. Faced with no choice but to show fiscal restraint FINALLY they will tell the banks to pound sand.

Do these big banks know this already? If you cannot answer that question then you really need to stop skipping class and your 1st makeup lesson will be to review the bank bail-in legislation that is fully in place.

Capital controls are already increasing and will continue until the ULTIMATE is achieved, a totally digital currency. If we see bank bail-ins (and I believe we will) it will be a swift one-time event that most people will take no issue with as it will be sold to us simply as the rich doing their part in a time of crisis.

"Banking establishments are some of the WORST investors throughout history. They always go bust and government devours them every single time. Yes, the government has been protecting the bankers for they have also been fueling the debt and assisting governments to borrow. Therein lies their own demise. EVERY major banking house has been destroyed by this very same flirtation with power.

They are like moths attracted to the flame of a candle, hoping to dance by the light and never realizing their wings may get burned.

[But now] The cycle has changed. The wheel of fortune has completed its revolution. Governments are turning against the banks and looking to electronic currency.

The days of rumored banking conspiracies are coming to an end, as it always does. The banks will be a giant short. When the Sovereign Debt defaults become a contagion, the banks will not be supported by government."

Excerpt From: "A Question of Money — Interest & Bankers"

Posted on September 8, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36934

NO CONSPIRACIES HERE

"The problem ain't what people know. It's what people know that ain't so that's the problem." ~ Will Rogers

I have often encouraged folks to be slow in allowing your world view to change as in "do not carry around everything you pick up, lay it back down if it proves of no value". Well, as an example of my own journey (yes it has been a struggle at times) and evidence that I follow my own advice (practice what I preach) let me offer this about myself:

A few years ago I reluctantly and slowly began waking up to the truth that there is no evil force of powerful men behind the curtain directing the worlds economy to their gain. This thinking was ingrained into me more deeply than I realized. But thru education and careful observation my view today (my perspective) has changed considerably.

Are there attempts to manipulate financial markets for personal gain? You bet there are but this does not equate to actually having power to control them and the distinction here makes all the difference.

To those who still carry the mantle of conspiracy; thinking for example that the entire worlds financial system is being steered and controlled by grand puppet masters with really big strings who then manipulate at will and always to their gain? I would ask this:

Considering what we just covered in these few paragraphs, is this not evidence that, even tho individual markets are manipulated for a time (with mixed success) if such groups were all powerful (and half as smart as we need them to be) then they would not go bust with each crash and run to government for bailouts?

This brief visit into conspiracies is meant to inspire but even it fails I can still testify that my recent journey has been a much more liberated one.

This one small adjustment to my thinking has set me free from a limitation that I did not know existed and I am today seeing some things quite clearly that before were cloudy at best and at times just totally beyond my reach. To put it bluntly, as recently as a year ago I would have been largely disqualified from composing today's blog.

“...[Steve Eisman] got himself invited to a meeting with the CEO of Bank of America, Ken Lewis. “I was sitting there listening to him. I had an epiphany. I said to myself, ‘Oh my God, he’s dumb!’ A lightbulb went off. The guy running one of the biggest banks in the world is dumb!”

They shorted Bank of America, along with UBS, Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, and a few others. They weren’t allowed to short Morgan Stanley because they were owned by Morgan Stanley, but if they could have, they would have..."

Excerpt From: Lewis, Michael. “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.”
Comments may be made at the end of Part 3 Thank You
Memphis: "Change Is Coming To America" Part 3 of 3
9/15/2015
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Memphis: "Change Is Coming To America" Part 3 of 3


ON CIVIL UNREST

Commodities, stocks, bonds? All will be in a state of flux but this time frame will mark the final big push into bond markets creating the high before confidence then begins to shift OUT of gov't; from public into private havens. Many have heard that as far back as 1985 Armstrong began predicting 2015.75 as "Big Bang" but even now few appreciate what this means! It does not mean a stock market collapse and Great Depression on that day.

What this date, Oct01, 2015, marks is the PEAK IN CONFIDENCE in gov't and this will drive many changes. From this point onward gov't debt will matter as confidence shifts away to private assets and interest rates will necessarily rise.

People are waking up and this is all very much "on the radar" of those in charge. The citizens are expected to become the threat to government and governments everywhere have prepared for this.
~~~
So from October2015 we will see civil unrest amplify. For a barometer here WATCH EUROPE!! With few exceptions, what's coming to our shores will hit there first.

There are many events driving this (and none conspiracy) that include a few notables such as the unraveling of socialism (government promises), the growing insolvency of our pension system, rising taxes, corruption, police state surveillance (i.e. gov't intrusion) and social problems such as refugees driven by war into a land that already has trouble enough keeping it's own people employed.

As a nation state enters decay it's first default is not external but internal. Obligations to the citizens slowly but steadily evaporate before open default to other sovereign states. This is already well underway and most likely we all know personal accounts of benefits being cut back etc.

Governments inability to continue handouts will begin to show major cracks in 2016 and on the state level watch Illinois as they are likely to be the 1st state to openly default from insolvency.

By now most are at least somewhat aware of the problems in Greece but wait until it involves a nation whose economy and debt level truly affects the balance sheet. Next up.... Italy?

In America Detroit was but a marker along the pathway (a harbinger of more to follow) that many have already forgotten. Their annual expenditures just to meet pension demands exceeded 50% before they finally threw in the towel. Others states and municipalities will follow with California being somewhere in the early mix. Understand that California's economy dwarfs that of many nations!

PENSION FUNDS - THE LOW HANGING FRUIT

The pensions are already shifting into US Treasuries and this will become mandated over the next few years. It will be sold to us (packaged) as gov't saving our future and protecting these $18T of monies from certain ruin in this environment of low interest and volatile markets.

By 2020 few of us will be able to retire as planned for these funds will in large measure be destroyed by their exposure to deflation and low rates of return and lost in the paper shuffle of settling the bad bets made by banks along with our nation's debts. What remains will likely have capital controls placed over it such that pensioners will receive allotments determined by some gov't agency.

Recall the recent revelation that Illinois has no fund set aside to honor all their huge Lotto payouts? Just as in our SS system these monies have been spent, obligated, etc. The vault is empty; in coming years this will be the growing reality for pensions and it gives me no pleasure to say it.

"When people lose everything, and they have nothing else to lose? They lose it!" ~ Gerald Celente

AS GOVERNMENT RECEDES

As a footnote, many societal shifts are coming as hard working people lack work and basic needs go unmet. Among these we see food pantries are already a growing lifeline to MULTITUDES and their business will be growing faster than anyone could imagine. Opportunities will about for people with a big heart. Yes this will mirror the Great Depression in many respects but with a major twist....


THE END OF BIG GOVERNMENT

"...government seizes more power and claims it alone possesses the power to alter the future by preventing the [business] cycle from every happening again. They have never succeeded, not even once. Some seven agencies approved the real estate CDOs that blew up the world in 2007 — SEVEN!

Not a single agency understood the dimensions [the risks] of what they approved. There is not a single instance of government embracing anything that will eliminate the business cycle. Yet at every turn, they promise to accomplish what no one has ever done in history."

Excerpt From: "Thinking & Understanding the Right Track"
Posted on September 10, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37016

Not only will Government not be there with the solutions, Government will be the problem. Big government will begin dying in America in 2016 but will not go quietly into the night, this will take years. Based on cycles and the current evidence, the 2016 elections will either be suspended under Marshall law or we will see a 3rd party type person (non-establishment) elected as president.

It is important to see the trend unfolding here. Trump's popularity means nothing to us for it is the underlying message that holds value. People are waking up and he is simply evidence to this. The move is away from ANY establishment politician and this supports the trend and THIS will be the 2016 election story regardless who prevails.

Tho seemingly impossible today (with just over a year to elections) the establishment may not even allow the election to be held, "Suspended pending a national crisis". Just as a good lawyer does not ask the witness a question unless he/she already knows the answer?

The establishment will not allow an election if the outcome is sure to produce a president that they do not control. yes this is sick and disgusting on many levels but is part of my conclusion. Let's move on to the land of Mayberry...

MILITARIZATION OF THE POLICE

If you think that local law enforcement has changed from the days of Mayberry then your right. If you think that this will not intensify you simply need to look at all the evidence. Not what they might say but by observation; what they are doing and to history, what shall we expect.

Our government at all levels will be fighting to maintain the status quo and will fight (literally) to preserve it. As a guide, history speaks clearly on this point and we must not ignore her message in this regard.

The turning of government against it's citizens is an important marker of the last stage, that of the decline and fall of any nation state, and when we emerge on the other side America will look nothing like it did going in. There are so many indicators (evidences) that America is in this stage of decline that we could park right here to discuss it and NEVER finish.

Let's close this thought with an example (a snapshot) in support. I chose this from all the many possibilities simply because it seems likely that few would even consider it into their thinking. For decades now we have slowly been losing our common tongue of English. This is not an insignificant thing as expressed by looking to the fall of Rome:

"What made the Roman Empire last so long was the single language. As Julius Caesar said in war – “Divide and conquer.” If a nation diverts into regional languages, they will lose the bond that holds the nation together. Any empire with multiple languages [becomes] split according to language. Hello! Look at Ukraine, East (Russian) and West (Ukrainian)."

Excerpt From: "Language is the Key to an Empire"
Posted on September 5, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36860



SO BUYING "STUFF" IS THE WAY TO GO THRU THIS?

Not an "advice" letter here so let me be brief. Based on current price/time data, metals should bottom by mid 2016 and as government confidence begins to wane they will rise as a reflection of this, likely hitting highs that might seem impossible today. Holding a portion of assets in metals as a hedge against government is sound advice thru this stage.

DURING this time it will appear as a great financial gain but when the dusts finally settles post 2020 and we do the math it will likely be more true that we simply PRESERVED our wealth. Regardless of how and where we allocate, preservation is important in the next several years.

"If we head into a Mad Max event, that is the full-blown control-alt-delete which means the ONLY thing of value will be food/weapons. You can have all the gold in the world, but without food, you die...Your idea that ONLY gold and silver are the “recognized” mediums of exchange shows that you have been brainwashed by gold promoters and are ignoring history.

Gold will rise in “value” expressed in the medium of exchange provided we are NOT going into a Dark Age after 2032. Gold is an “asset” and it will rise in value against money as will all other assets (stocks) when people lose CONFIDENCE in government.


Gold is a recognized worldwide commodity for it is the same everywhere which cannot be said for rice, wheat, or even corn...If you do not look at everything around you, you will lose everything for what you expect from gold is by no means realistic."

Excerpt From: "Why Money Need Not Be “Tangible”
Posted on September 9, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36942

Real Estate valuations like all asset classes, are going to begin dropping noticeably by fall 2016 with a few turbulent years before a clear bottom is reached and confidence slowly returns.

Being a renter until then and a buyer at the bottom is one obvious strategy. High end real estate has created the illusion of good times but as foreign capital flows into the US real estate market continue to dry up the REAL trend (deflationary) will resume.

The decline in government confidence will again swing to eventually allow a rise in confidence in homes (the rule of law governs here) but another factor that must play out here is the decline in big government! Until such time we should expect property taxes as well as taxation on all fronts to rise. At this stage people historically just walk away from fixed assets.

Besides not being advice here, this is simply an accumulation of (again, the totality of) what some very smart men have concluded from observation. Beyond Armstrong I would point to a recent interview with renowned trends researcher Harry Dent last week on TruNews.com. He is a smart guy and nails it on most points. [link below]

WHAT ABOUT WAR?

"Sun Tzu,” Charlie said. John looked at him and smiled. “The enemy will never attack you where you are strongest. . . . He will attack where you are weakest. If you do not know your weakest point, be certain, your enemy will.” Excerpt From: William R. Forstchen. “One Second After.”

The build up of Russian troops, naval vessels, war planes in Syria is not for exercise and I look for an armed conflict (to save us all from ISIS) likely within the next several weeks but certainly before the holidays. The war cycle began early 2014 and runs thru 2020 and a solid progression has been unfolding.

This conflict will be very visible and played on all mass media with the threat of global war being thrown in as well. But that will come later.

The threat of global war will become high as we approach a window 2018-2020. This cycle is a strong one (reliable in it's frequency) and it's present convergence with the cycle of civil unrest and the decline of the western world including the worlds super power is a dangerous cocktail.

As such we should consider the threat of warfare in America as being a real possibility during this time frame. I prefer to leave any further speculation on warfare on the table, just not real comfortable sharing (as it quickly gets into opinion) but history does require that we not disallow the possibility for our nation to be attacked by an enemy and whether this ever comes to pass or not we simply should enter this window of time with our eyes opened to the reality that we will be more susceptible than at any previous time in our history.

A measure, a key, to watch will be the reaction from our leaders in Washington. Do they show signs of relenting, accepting the new normal, or do they dig in their heels. It is troubling but not surprising that thus far there are no signs of retreat.

Not surprising for we are simply reacting as men always do and any deviation from this will truly be a step forward for mankind. This point is not included here as filler, these things are an essential part of making probabilities.

A final marker (of my own choosing) is that of a large and open defeat to our navy in hostile waters as it would be a harbinger of more to follow. Just an opinion here based on...history.

LOOKING AT EXTREMES

There are some vastly different outcomes still possible and at present we can only speculate on them. It should be stated that in this discussion? We stand a chance of seeing an extreme outcome in America. What does that mean? We must be careful to define this as it is not meant to spark fear.

Simply put, in the coming years America will be more vulnerable than at any time past. Mathematically stated, the probabilities rise significantly. This then does NOT equate to any precise prediction. With that let's briefly look at some extremes:

We presently have an increasing toxic mix of growing fascism and totalitarianism taking root in America. If left unchecked and allowed to see it's extreme form it will morph into full blown Marxist communism.***

This is the dream of the globalists in the UN but I do not see them winning the day unless they first take our guns and then overrun our land. CERTAINLY an extreme but it is their desire to disarm and we must appreciate that.

***[note: Before firing off an email here in reply, recognize that our society has slowly been conditioned to look to government and that "sharing the wealth" is now looked at by MANY as a moral act such that over 1/2 of our nation would likely accept this transformation.]

One likely means to do this would be an EMP attack to take down our power grid. Again, to be very clear, this is an extreme example, not meant to imply that this is LIKELY. It is simply a very real "possibility" and as such we watch for warning signs along the road.****

**** [note: A fictional account of what such an event would look like is "One Second After" written by William R. Forstchen. This book is considered such a good resource for the "what if" discussion that a complimentary copy was given to every member of the US Congress upon it's release.]

A second means to create crisis and restrict our movement is the spread of epidemic.

Our military labs have been in the news quite often this year with stories of mishandling and mislabeling various pathogens. This from last Thursday Sept10 concerning bubonic plague:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... /71888694/

On the opposite extreme we endure some years of lack and come out the other side with our guns intact, the globalists (and all enemies of America) are sent packing, and our liberties slowly returned. This likely means that some form of revolution (a WIDELY misunderstood word) has taken place.

If American history were still taught then we would all be armed with the knowledge that our founders actually foresaw such a day and prepared for it, considering revolution as a healthy and necessary thing to repel an out of control government.

I know this section is not light reading but it seemed necessary to briefly attempt to define for history is quite clear on this point. We will be facing some critical crossroads as a nation and the next 5yrs will be pivotal as we follow the trends and identify those moments that will define our course.

Lest we take things too far in our perspective it is important to also see great opportunity thruout this timeframe. The greater the darkness becomes the more easily light can shine thru and at some critical point there will be shining examples of brighter days ahead.

RESPECTING HISTORY IS SO VITAL

"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach." ~ Aldous Huxley

The history of man is one that repeats despite how wise each successive generation thinks it has become. Why? Because at all levels our responses are based upon our nature, our passions, our greed for self, our confidences (fear of what might be), these things never change. Each has his/her part in the play and in the end we repeat (or at least rhyme) those who have gone before.

So regardless of the 2016 election, America and Americans are facing, at minimum, four years of growing hardship and beyond this we face a new normal that cannot be defined very well (as of yet) other than a general return to old time customs (talk to your grandparents for answers) that make any society strong and a new generation that grows up knowing nothing about pining for stuff and spending days at the mall.

The failed exercise in socialism is now finally diagnosed as terminal and will be dying it's much awaited death during this time frame. Folks who are able to "self sustain" will feel the pain the least. Do we live near a large city or in isolation.

These things have been carefully mapped out by many including our government and there is one single concern here that I will briefly describe in case the reader has not prepared.

Only within the last century has society transitioned to a state where few can survive alone. The advance of the Industrial Age brought advancements in farming and transportation, refrigeration, mega grocery stores, just in time inventories to stock them, and a population where few know how to grow a garden.

America's food is grown in massive farming operations and then shipped hundreds and thousands of miles to finally arrive on our local grocery shelf.

This is a carefully choreographed process that has many potential threats built in. For example if the sun releases an earth facing CME and critical components of our power grid go out then most homes in America would be barren of food in less than a week.

Many events (both natural and man made) could cause a major disruption to the supply chain and this should be an informed part of every family's plan as we enter the next few years.

Laying aside emotion we should all consider at least a basic level of preparedness.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

To conclude, none of these topics that we have opened here are "guesstimates" or wild speculation. I did not employ a dartboard in deciding what to write about today. I truly wish that ALL of the above was a fictional "what if" and my name were Ayn Rand (Atlas Shrugged) or George Orwell (1984) writing of some future society.

Certainly none of us wish or want any of the above but regardless of it's final form, change is coming like a steam roller, it will exceed most present day expectations, and the choices made in preparing will likely be as varied as the responses that follow it's arrival.

Even within the closed circle of dinar holders it appears that a majority are of the mindset that we just need the RV and all is well. Is this the case or are there still hurdles that we must jump and hazards to go around?

Yes some dinar groups are attempting to raise, to elevate, the discussion and they deserve our applause but from where I sit there are many individuals who have yet to engage.

The time for engagement is now for this is a mental journey, a process, and like anything worth while in life it requires time to grow. Few things in life come suddenly or easily and gaining the needed perspective for the days ahead will not just come to us; it must be pursued.

The canvas used in painting today's picture is admittedly much larger than normal and so as I send this out my hope is that somehow the body of it's message will still show thru as it seems an important one.

Blessings, Memphis

Links to support the above material with thousands more available:

The Three Bombshells Tucked Inside The Continuing Resolution to Fund the Gov’t
Posted on December 14, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/1 ... -the-govt/

Understanding BIG BANG 2015.75
Posted on December 28, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/2 ... g-2015-75/

Where do we Hide? Was Dante Right? Is the End Near?
Posted on December 15, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/1 ... -end-near/

The #1 Terrorist Group = Domestic Citizens
Posted on September 2, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36768

Political Corruption Sanctioned by Mainstream Press?
Posted on September 5, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36858

Uprising Against Government is Global
Posted on September 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36723

Interview with Trends Economist Harry Dent

http://www.trunews.com/wednesday-septem ... arry-dent/

“I have heard that White Mountain would rather I stick to my knitting,” he wrote, testily, to his original backer, “though it is not clear to me that White Mountain has historically understood what my knitting really is.” No one seemed able to see what was so plain to him: These credit default swaps were all part of his global search for value. “I don’t take breaks in my search for value,” he wrote to White Mountains. “There is no golf or other hobby to distract me. Seeing value is what I do.”

Excerpt From: Lewis, Michael. “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.”
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Re: Change Is Rapidly Coming To America & All The Planet

Postby Nanana12 » Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:27 am

Thanks for the info
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